Onward Logo Colour White 2021

Number of seats won by Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats under different scenarios

What might the electoral map look like if Labour and the Liberal Democrats resolved to stop competing with each other in Conservative seats?

We modelled the hypothetical Lab-Lib pact by assuming that the two parties trade votes in Conservative seats depending on which is the runner-up. In this scenario, the Conservatives would still win 321 seats.

We also combine this with a 3% swing away from the Conservatives, in favour of whichever party is the runner-up. In this case, the Conservatives would win 301 seats, Labour would win 246, and the Liberal Democrats would win 31, giving the hypothetical Lab-Lib coalition a total of 277.

Share on twitter
Share on facebook
Share on linkedin
Share on email
READ Related Report
REPORT
Another Brick In The Wall

Next election battleground will be in the North, not the non-existent “Blue Wall”