Head of Future Politics and Chief Data Analyst James Blagden wrote for CityAM on Red Wall Conservative voters’ support for net zero. He writes:
“Net zero is so popular that ditching it would cost the Conservatives votes at the next election. Two-in-five 2019 Conservative voters would be less likely to vote for them again if they moved away from the policy. Altogether, we estimate a loss of over 1.3m voters from their 2019 coalition if the party scraps its net zero pledges.
After the last election, Boris Johnson acknowledged that many “lent” their votes to the Conservatives for the first time in their lives. If the government wants to hold onto its majority, it must keep these voters on-side. Yet if the party ran with a promise to remove the net zero target, only 36 per cent of these first-time Conservatives would vote Tory again. In essence, a u-turn on this promise would be a serious electoral misjudgement.”
Read the full piece here.