GETTING TO ZERO
This ground breaking research will enable evidence based policy making by Government both national and local and above all help avoid aggravating existing inequalities by seizing the opportunities that net zero affords.
This report argues that the Government will not deliver on its commitment to net zero by 2050 without taking radical action to decarbonise the 12 most carbon-intensive industries, which include aviation, land transport, oil and gas, agriculture and manufacturing.
But if ministers take the right steps, the new demand for renewables and low carbon technologies could deliver up to 1.7 million new green jobs, half of which are likely to be located in the North, Midlands and Scotland.
The analysis finds that:
The research underlines the political and economic challenges of delivering net zero, and the wholesale transformation of the UK’s industrial base it will require. This is mitigated by the considerable opportunity to generate new net zero jobs through low and zero carbon technologies. The report finds that:
Cross sector
Net zero technologies need to develop and commercialise at a faster rate. Hydrogen and carbon capture technologies have not been rolled out for industrial use yet.
Combined and local authorities do not have the powers or accountability to
ensure sufficient decarbonisation in their local areas.
Industrial decarbonisation risks losing domestic jobs and making UK businesses uncompetitive if the policies are not right.
Agriculture
There are poor price signals and perverse incentives in the agricultural system. Current technologies are also not sufficient to decarbonise farm vehicles, machinery, and other agricultural processes.
Aviation
Technology to decarbonise Aviation does not exist yet, and will not at a commercial level on any meaningful timeframe. Aviation fuel is not exempt from tax under international agreements, costing the Government up to £9.1bn a year.
Carbon Intensive Manufacturing
Decarbonising manufacturing will rely primarily on hydrogen, electrification and CCS, technologies which all require further development to scale up commercially.
Construction and Buildings
Decarbonising homes in the UK represents a huge challenge, as retrofitting is currently too expensive for many households. In addition, homes and buildings are still being built that are not fit for a net zero future. Alternatives to steel and cement are too costly, so many buildings have high levels of embodied carbon.
Land Transport
EVs are in the commercialisation stage, but are too expensive for the average consumer. Electrified or hydrogen powered HGVs and LGVs are only in the R&D stage.
Power generation
Decarbonisation of this industry is well underway. However, coal and gas still need to be phased out, whilst energy demands may more than double.
Shipping and Fishing
New technologies are primarily in the R&D stage and few are in commercial use on any major scale.
Waste and Sewerage
The quality of recycling in the UK is poor compared to some comparators. The landfill tax is increasing, but at a rate below inflation and major tax gaps exists.
Extractive Industries
These industries are generally not consistent with a net zero future and many sites will need to be decommissioned in coming years.
Tax breaks and subsidies equivalent to more than €11bn are provided to Oil and Gas companies, whilst other policies exist which promote oil and gas extraction that are not aligned with the net zero target.
Steel
Steel production is already close to its maximum energy efficiency potential, and electric arc furnaces can only produce certain types of steel so carbon-intensive blast furnaces will still be required. Steel producers also face higher energy costs than their European competitors, which may hinder decarbonisation and promote offshoring.
Retail
The decline of the high-street and shift to online shopping provides opportunities to decarbonise but could increase emissions if these opportunities are not taken.
The report puts forward 25 recommendations for the Government to green the giants and ease the transition for these carbon-intensive industries, while maximising the domestic economic potential of the transition to boost jobs and growth, including:
Cross sector
Net zero technologies need to develop and commercialise at a faster rate. Hydrogen and carbon capture technologies have not been rolled out for industrial use yet.
Combined and local authorities do not have the powers or accountability to
ensure sufficient decarbonisation in their local areas.
Industrial decarbonisation risks losing domestic jobs and making UK businesses uncompetitive if the policies are not right.
Agriculture
There are poor price signals and perverse incentives in the agricultural system. Current technologies are also not sufficient to decarbonise farm vehicles, machinery, and other agricultural processes.
Aviation
Technology to decarbonise Aviation does not exist yet, and will not at a commercial level on any meaningful timeframe. Aviation fuel is not exempt from tax under international agreements, costing the Government up to £9.1bn a year.
Carbon Intensive Manufacturing
Decarbonising manufacturing will rely primarily on hydrogen, electrification and CCS, technologies which all require further development to scale up commercially.
Construction and Buildings
Decarbonising homes in the UK represents a huge challenge, as retrofitting is currently too expensive for many households. In addition, homes and buildings are still being built that are not fit for a net zero future. Alternatives to steel and cement are too costly, so many buildings have high levels of embodied carbon.
Land Transport
EVs are in the commercialisation stage, but are too expensive for the average consumer. Electrified or hydrogen powered HGVs and LGVs are only in the R&D stage.
Power generation
Decarbonisation of this industry is well underway. However, coal and gas still need to be phased out, whilst energy demands may more than double.
Shipping and Fishing
New technologies are primarily in the R&D stage and few are in commercial use on any major scale.
Waste and Sewerage
The quality of recycling in the UK is poor compared to some comparators. The landfill tax is increasing, but at a rate below inflation and major tax gaps exists.
Extractive Industries
These industries are generally not consistent with a net zero future and many sites will need to be decommissioned in coming years.
Tax breaks and subsidies equivalent to more than €11bn are provided to Oil and Gas companies, whilst other policies exist which promote oil and gas extraction that are not aligned with the net zero target.
Steel
Steel production is already close to its maximum energy efficiency potential, and electric arc furnaces can only produce certain types of steel so carbon-intensive blast furnaces will still be required. Steel producers also face higher energy costs than their European competitors, which may hinder decarbonisation and promote offshoring.
Retail
The decline of the high-street and shift to online shopping provides opportunities to decarbonise but could increase emissions if these opportunities are not taken.
The report puts forward 25 recommendations for the Government to green the giants and ease the transition for these carbon-intensive industries, while maximising the domestic economic potential of the transition to boost jobs and growth, including:
Ted Christie-Miller, report co-author, said:
“The UK has successfully halved its emissions since 1990, but that means the low-hanging fruit have already been picked. The next phase will require the wholesale transformation of industries that are integral to our economy and vital for regional jobs. It is essential the Government helps these industries to make the transition, while helping new net zero industries to flourish.“
“We need to green the giants of industry through smart regulation and bold industrial strategy, using the energy around COP26 and the recovery from the pandemic to drive a net zero agenda over the next decade that is as ambitious as the pandemic response has been over the past year.”
Rt Hon Caroline Flint, co-chair of the Getting to Zero commission, also spoke to Times Radio about the findings from the report:
This report is produced as part of our Getting to Zero research programme.
Established a year before COP26, Onward’s Getting to Zero programme is dedicated to developing practical and politically possible ways for the UK to meet its net zero ambitions and lead the world in decarbonisation.
Read more in Getting to Zero: Qualifying for the Race to Net Zero | Green Shoots
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