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Future Politics

Understanding our changing political settlement

Our work on the UK’s changing electoral geography led us to identify the importance of the Red Wall and Workington Man ahead of the 2019 election. The Future Politics programme is focused on the changing values and voting patterns of the electorate and the future of the Union.

REPORTS

Lessons for Labour: 2024 strategy

What does Onward polling tell us about Keir Starmer’s Labour Party’s chance of winning the general election in 2024?
by James Blagden

After the fall: Where the Conservatives went wrong

… and how they can win again.
by James Blagden, Will Tanner

Another Brick In The Wall

Next election battleground will be in the North, not the non-existent “Blue Wall”
by James Blagden

New Onward research on Scottish Independence

Brand new polling for Onward by Stack Data Strategy suggests public support for an early Scottish independence referendum has fallen considerably since May.
by James Blagden, Will Tanner

State of the Union

The State of the Union is the most comprehensive survey of attitudes towards the Union since 2014, drawing on detailed attitudinal research in all four nations of the United Kingdom.
by Will Tanner, James Blagden

No Turning Back – Breaking The Red Wall in 2019

Major study of the 2019 General Election explores the fall of the Red Wall, the importance of Workington Man, and the politics of the post-2019 electorate.
by Guy Miscampbell, Will Tanner, James Blagden
RECENT
Forced to Move: How to reduce climate migration to the UK
Forced to Move: How to reduce climate migration to the UK
Reducing the impact of climate change on migration
Labour’s Plans for Childcare: Keynote Speech Bridget Phillipson MP
Labour’s Plans for Childcare: Keynote Speech Bridget Phillipson MP
The Next Moves Forward: Keynote speech Michael Gove
The Next Moves Forward: Keynote speech Michael Gove
New Horizons: The UK’s Global Science Strategy Beyond Horizon Europe
New Horizons: The UK’s Global Science Strategy Beyond Horizon Europe
Levelling Up Locally
Levelling Up Locally
Levelling Up in Practice: Barry Interim Report
Levelling Up in Practice: Barry Interim Report

EVENTS

Nov 16
9:00-
10:00

Reclaiming Populism

How economic fairness can win back disenchanted voters?
with:
Jun 21

Future Farming

Clean Comeback
Harnessing the power of agriculture to tackle climate change
with:
Jun 10

Making it big: The future of UK manufacturing

Level Up
What policies could support UK manufacturing?
with:
Nov 16
9:00-
10:00

Reclaiming Populism

How economic fairness can win back disenchanted voters?
with:
Jun 21

Future Farming

Clean Comeback
Harnessing the power of agriculture to tackle climate change
with:
Jun 10

Making it big: The future of UK manufacturing

Level Up
What policies could support UK manufacturing?
with:

Press Coverage

The Spectator

How the Tories should address Britain’s future

The Spectator publishes a transcript of Michael Gove MP's speech at the launch of Onward's 'Future of Conservatism'.

The Times

Nicola Sturgeon’s exit is big opportunity for unionists

Sebastian Payne writes for the Times on what Nicola Sturgeon's exit could mean for unionism.

The Times

Nicola Sturgeon’s exit is big opportunity for unionists

Sebastian Payne writes for The Times on what Nicola Sturgeon's exit means for unionism and nationalism.

Times Letters

Times letters: Lessons for Truss from Thatcher’s victories

Director Will Tanner outlines lessons for the Truss premiership from Thatcher's public finance policies.

A Queen’s Speech should be about more than playing politics

Director Will Tanner wrote for the Prospect Magazine on what the Government's policies announced in the Queen's speech means for broader politics.

ipaper

The Prime Minister is safe for now – the local elections showed people are fed up with politics

Director Will Tanner wrote for the ipaper on the implications of the local election results for the Conservatives, and what policies they should focus on to secure a general election majority in 2024.

City AM

Boris Johnson needs to find the Tory heartlands before he fights for them

Director Will Tanner wrote for CityAM on the outcome and aftermath of the local elections for the Conservative Party.

Scrapping net zero could cost the Conservatives 1.3 million votes

Media coverage summary of 'Taking the Temperature.'

City AM

Red Wall Conservative voters will abandon Johnson if he backs down on net zero

Head of Future Politics James Blagden wrote for City AM on Red Wall Conservative voters’ support for net zero.

Press Coverage

The Spectator

How the Tories should address Britain’s future

The Spectator publishes a transcript of Michael Gove MP's speech at the launch of Onward's 'Future of Conservatism'.

The Times

Nicola Sturgeon’s exit is big opportunity for unionists

Sebastian Payne writes for the Times on what Nicola Sturgeon's exit could mean for unionism.

The Times

Nicola Sturgeon’s exit is big opportunity for unionists

Sebastian Payne writes for The Times on what Nicola Sturgeon's exit means for unionism and nationalism.

Times Letters

Times letters: Lessons for Truss from Thatcher’s victories

Director Will Tanner outlines lessons for the Truss premiership from Thatcher's public finance policies.

A Queen’s Speech should be about more than playing politics

Director Will Tanner wrote for the Prospect Magazine on what the Government's policies announced in the Queen's speech means for broader politics.

ipaper

The Prime Minister is safe for now – the local elections showed people are fed up with politics

Director Will Tanner wrote for the ipaper on the implications of the local election results for the Conservatives, and what policies they should focus on to secure a general election majority in 2024.

City AM

Boris Johnson needs to find the Tory heartlands before he fights for them

Director Will Tanner wrote for CityAM on the outcome and aftermath of the local elections for the Conservative Party.

Scrapping net zero could cost the Conservatives 1.3 million votes

Media coverage summary of 'Taking the Temperature.'

City AM

Red Wall Conservative voters will abandon Johnson if he backs down on net zero

Head of Future Politics James Blagden wrote for City AM on Red Wall Conservative voters’ support for net zero.

iNews

The key to winning the next general election is being tough on crime, and Labour is currently in the lead

Director Will Tanner writes for the ipaper on how crime will be a decisive factor in the next general election.

How red wall Tory MPs will draw hope from voters in Yvette Cooper’s Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford seat

Adam Hawksbee writes for the Yorkshire Post on the effect of demographic trends on the Tory vote share.

Conservative Home

The Red Wall and Blue Fade. Why the main challenge to the Tories remains in the Midlands and North.

James Blagden writes for Conservative Home discussing the findings from our report 'Another Brick in the Wall.'

House Magazine

Conservatives must remember why they won in 2019 if they want to triumph again

Prospect

Nicola Sturgeon wants to mark her own homework to evade accountability

Will Tanner, Onward's Director, writes for Prospect about the erosion of transparency in Scotland under devolution and the case for greater UK-wide statistical accountability.

Smart Thinking

In its constitutional centenary could power be better shared within the UK going forward?

Jenevieve Treadwell writes for Smart Thinking, discussing how power should be shared going forward.

City AM

Sturgeon’s dismal domestic record has derailed the SNP’s train of separatism

Will Tanner writes for City AM on why the SNP's record may derail Nicola Sturgeon's date with destiny.

i Newspaper

PM-Chancellor partnerships benefit from a healthy tension

Will Tanner on the natural conflicts that develop between No.10 and No.11 Downing Street.

Why the Tories must be the party of the ‘red wall’ and the southern heartlands.

Media coverage summary of No Turning Back.

Conservative Home

The Government cannot assume its majority is safe. It must continue to win over “Contract Conservatives”.

James Blagden, senior researcher at Onward, writes for Conservative Home about No Turning Back, our major analysis of the post-2019 electorate where we found that one in five Conservative voters supported the party despite it not being their ideal choice.

Conservative Home

Think tank response to the Budget

Conservative Home mentions the comments made by Sebastian Payne, Onward's Director about the March Budget and it's effects on the country.

The Times

Jeremy Hunt enters submarine mode as pressure mounts ahead of the budget

Onward is mentioned in a Times piece about the run up to the March budget, it mentions Michael Gove's recent speech on the economy at the 'Future of Conservatism' launch event.

Cambridgeshire Live

Child benefit payments ‘could be stopped’ if your children miss school

Cambridgeshire Live reports on a recent Onward speech event where Michael Gove suggests that benefits could be cut to parents if their children fail to attend school enough.

LBC

Cross Question

Onward's director, Sebastian Payne joins Iain Dale on Cross Question LBC to discuss recent political events.

Good to Know

Stark benefits warning to parents who let their children run truant

The Good to Know page reports on Michael Gove's comments on child benefits and parental responsibility from an event that Onward hosted.

Lancs Live

DWP child benefits could be stopped for parents of skiving school kids, says Michael Gove

Lancs Live reports on Michael Gove's speech at Onward's Future of Conservatism launch, where he discussed school truancy and child benefits.

Politico

Onward march: Future of Conservatism

Politico mentions Onward's recent staff changes and new 'Future of Conservatism' project.

Conservative Home

I want to bring peace to our cultural war’. Gove’s Onward Speech

A transcript of a recent event that Onward hosted with Michael Gove giving a keynote speech about the 'Future of Conservatism' agenda.

In Your Area

Parents’ child benefit ‘should be stopped’ if children miss school, says Michael Gove

Michael Gove talks about child benefits being cut to address school truancy at an Onward event.

Leicestershire Live

Seven reasons why your Universal Credit could be cut

Leicestershire Live gives seven reasons why universal credit can be cut after Michael Gove discusses child benefits at an Onward event.

Nottinghamshire Live

Child benefit could be stopped if kids skip school, Gove warns parents

At Onward's launch of the 'Future of Conservatism' event Michael Gove talks about child benefits and school truancy.

Politics Home

No 10 using small boats to persuade hardline Tory Brexiteers to back ‘Windsor Framework’

Michael Gove discusses at an Onward event the recent Windsor framework deal and its link with the small boats issue the UK is facing.

Politics Home

No 10 using small boats to persuade hardline Tory Brexiteers to back ‘Windsor Framework’

Politics Home mentions Onward's recent event with Michael Gove where he mentions how the 'Windsor Framework' can fit with the small boats issue.

BBC

Cut parents’ benefits over school truancy, suggests Michael Gove

BBC mentions Michael Gove's speech at a recent event for the 'Future of Conservatism'.

The Telegraph

There is still hope for Conservatism in Britain

Nick Timothy and Gavin Rice write in The Telegraph about Onward's new project, 'Future of Conservatism'.

The Independent

Parents of truanting children could have benefit stopped, says Michael Gove

The Independent highlights Michael Gove MP's speech at the launch of Onward's 'Future of Conservatism' initiative.

The Times

Michael Gove: deduct benefits for parents whose children skip school

The Times mentions Michael Gove MP's speech at Onward's 'Future of Conservatism' launch.

Conservative Home

David Burrowes: The Conservatives should stand up for Christians, people of faith and social conservatives in politics

Conservative Home mentions Onward's research on report 'After the Fall'.

Politico

Politico: More Sturgeon fallout

Politico publicises Sebastian Payne's op-ed in the Times on Nicola Sturgeon's exit and what it could mean for the future of the Union.

Conservative Reader

Finding the money: how do we reduce demands on the state?

Conservative Reader mentions Onward as leading on defining conservative economics over the past few years.

The Week

Ten Things You Need to Know Today: 21 January 2023

The Week’s daily digest of the news agenda mentions Onward's report 'Lessons for Labour.'

The Guardian

Labour could win big with shift to right on social issues, says thinktank

The Guardian comments on Onward's report 'Lessons for Labour'.

The Times

Why would anyone under 45 vote Tory?

The Times mentions Onward report 'After the Fall' on the increasing age of Conservative voters.

BBC News

Economists question ‘black hole’ in UK finances

BBC Economics Correspondent Andy Verity cites research from our report 'The Road to Credibility,' in his analysis of the gap in public finances.

The Times

Everything’s up for grabs, because the Tories have lost their bearings

David Smith mentions our report the Road to Credibility in highlighting what sound Conservative economic policies should look like today.

Inside Politics Newsletter, The Financial Times
,

There’s no disguising cuts to public services and infrastructure

Stephen Bush from the Financial Times covers Onward's research report 'The Road to Credibility,' on what Conservative economic policy should mean in the current economic context.

The Daily Express

PM to unleash SEVEN Brexit freedom bills and SLASH hated EU red tape

Director Will Tanner was quoted in an article on the Daily Express, where he commented that visible progress on levelling up will be key to reassuring voters.

The Guardian

Workington Man turned Tory in 2019 but slipped back to Labour in UK local elections

The Guardian referenced the 'Workington Man,' - a word coined by Onward to describe the archetypal swing voter in the 2019 elections, and quoted Director Will Tanner on his thoughts on the local election outcomes.

The Spectator's Coffee House Shots podcast

Who are the ‘winners’ in the local elections?

The Spectator’s Coffee House Shots podcast referenced Onward’s ‘Workington Man’ as part of their analysis.

TalkTV

TalkTV with Paul Cardwell

Senior Researcher Alex Luke spoke to Paul Cardwell on TalkTV, about popular support for net zero and outlining other findings from our research report 'Taking the Temperature'

Peston

Peston: Taking the Temperature

ITV’s Deputy Political Editor Anushka Asthana covered research from our report Taking the Temperature on Peston

The New Statesman

“Boris betrayed us”: Are the Tories doomed in the 2022 local elections?

Anoosh Chakelian references research from our report 'Another Brick in the Wall,' that argues that there is no Tory Blue Wall in the same way that there is a Red Wall

The Times

Which party put out 700 social media ads about Boris Johnson? (Clue: it’s not the Tories)

Data journalist Rachel Lavin wrote for the Times Analysis, and quoted Director Will Tanner on the outcome of the local elections.

The Independent

Has the penny finally dropped for the government on the cost of living crisis?

Andrew Grice cited research from our report 'Taking the Temperature' in an article on the need for action to battle the cost of living crisis.

Business Green

How diluting net zero goals could cost the Conservatives over a million votes

Michael Holder writes for the Business Green, covering research from our report 'Taking the Temperature' on Tory voters' support for net zero

The Evening Standard

Ditching net zero could cost Tories 1.3 million votes

The Evening Standard reported findings from our Taking the Temperature, showing strong support for net zero policy among Conservative voters.

The Guardian

Tories could lose 1.3m voters if net zero target ditched, says poll

The Guardian reported our research from Taking the Temperature in an article discussing the strong support for climate policies among Tory voters

The Daily Mirror

Boris Johnson set for local elections battering over Partygate, senior Tories fear

The Daily mirror cited research from our report Taking the Temperature, on how many votes the Conservatives would lose if they scrapped net zero policies

The Daily Mirror

Boris Johnson’s ‘unambitious’ levelling up plan at risk of failing, experts say

The Daily Mirror cites research from our report 'Another Brick in the Wall,' listing the Conservative seats at risk in the next general election

The Independent

The Tories are blaming everyone but themselves over the refugee crisis

Andrew Grice cites our Blue Wall research on the threat posed by the Newkip party to the Tories.

Birmingham Mail

Seven West Midlands constituencies named which ‘could switch from Tories to Labour’

Johnathan Walker discusses the findings from our 'Another Brick in the Wall' report, discussing the implications for the West Midlands constituencies that could switch from the Conservatives to Labour.

Politics Home

The Conservatives cannot afford complacency about the Red Wall – it holds the keys to Downing Street

Richard Holden MP mentions our latest research report 'Another Brick in the Wall,' discussing the importance of the Red Wall to the Conservatives' in the next general election.

politics.co.uk

Next election battleground will be in the North, not ‘non-existent Blue Wall’, says think tank

Politics.co.uk reports on the findings from our latest report 'Another Brick in the Wall,' which finds that the battleground at the next general election will be in the North of England.

The Week

Red wall pivotal to next election

The Week listed our findings from our report 'Another Brick in the Wall,' on how the red wall will be crucial to the next election, on their daily digest of the news agenda.

The Northern Agenda

Cementing the idea that the Tories need to keep their eyes on the ball in the North – a new report by Onward

The Northern Agenda Newsletter mentions our latest research report, 'Another Brick in the Wall.'

The Mirror

Boris Johnson among Tories to lose seats in next election if Britain ‘levels down’, experts say

Aletha Adu writes about our 'Another Brick in the Wall' research, on how levelling up is crucial to retaining Tory votes.

The Yorkshire Post

Tories ‘on course to make more Red Wall gains in Yorkshire at next election’ – here’s where

Chris Burn writes about additional Yorkshire seats that could fall to the Tories at the next election, as discovered in our latest report, 'Another Brick in the Wall.'

The Sun

Boris Johnson ‘must woo new Red Wall voters’ in the North to stay in power

Jonathan Reilly from The Sun covers our latest research report 'Another Brick in the Wall,' that argues that Boris Johnson must protect his Northern seats.

Politics Home

Dozens More ‘Red Wall’ Labour Seats Could Go Conservative, New Analysis Predicts

John Johnston echoes the findings from our report 'Another Brick in the Wall,' that more Northern seats could be added to the Red Wall.

iNews

Next election will be fought in the North of England not the ‘non-existent Blue Wall’ in the South, study suggests

Arj Singh discusses the findings of our report 'Another Brick in Wall,' and writes that Northern votes will be decisive for the next election.

The Guardian

Next general election will be decided in north of England, says thinktank

Nadeem Badshah discusses our latest report 'Another Brick in the Wall,' and how the battleground for the next general election will be in the North of England.

The Telegraph

Right-wing populist party biggest threat to Tories in next election, warns think-tank

Charles Hymas writes about the threat that right-wing populists pose to the Tories, discussed in our report 'Another Brick in the Wall.'

Sunday Express

After North Shropshire, Johnson given last chance to save himself as Tory donors call time on PM

Will Tanner was quoted in the Sunday Express, arguing that after North Shropshire the PM should focus on delivery.

PoliticsHome

Tories Give Boris Johnson Until May Elections To Clean Up His Act

Our Director, Will Tanner, was quoted in a PoliticsHome post-mortem of the North Shropshire by-election and the Prime Minister's future.

Financial Times

Lord Frost’s resignation exposes threat Boris Johnson faces from Tory right

Will Tanner, Onward's Director, was quoted in an FT news piece on Lord Frost's resignation over the "direction of travel" of the Government.

Daily Express

SNP admits independent Scotland ‘not able to print money’ to ease financial chaos

The Daily Express cites Onward's findings that nearly half of Scots want clarity on currency issues before another referendum.

The Sun

Scottish voters want clarity over status of the Pound before second independence vote

The Sun covers our recent polling showing rising hesitation about another Scottish Independence vote.

Sunday Telegraph

Most Scots do not want an early referendum, as support for independence slides

The Sunday Telegraph covers our polling showing declining support for independence on the eve of the SNP conference.

Prospect

Has the government abandoned its winning formula?

Helen Barnard writes for Prospect, cites our research to discuss where the centre ground of politics currently sits.

The Times

If the left wants a future, it must ditch Corbyn

One of the key findings of Onward's report entitled 'No turning back' was that while Conservative voters were similar to each other in terms of values and attitudes, Labour voters were not so nearly aligned.

The Post

Tobias Phibbs: Vapid politicians will never unite our country

Onward provides a report on Britain's demographic tribes.

The Independent

Tory voters now ‘lean to the left’ and want higher taxes to improve public services, study finds

Onward research shows Boris Johnson should not neglect his 'Red Wall' gains.

The Guardian

Keir Starmer faces shadow cabinet split on support for Brexit deal

Onward paints a difficult choice for Labour on a split shadow cabinet over the Brexit deal.

LBC Radio

Will Tanner on LBC Radio to discuss ‘No Turning Back’

Will Tanner speaks to LBC Radio about Onward's new report, 'No Turning Back'.

The Times

Iain Martin: Johnson needs a plan or Tories will oust him

A new report, No Turning Back, published today by the think tank Onward, serves as a reminder that the victory was hard-won, even against Jeremy Corbyn, because it involved the construction of a remarkable new electoral coalition of interests.

Politico

Politico Newsletter

A new report by center-right think tank Onward argues that as well as fighting to retain their coalition of traditional southern Tories and first-time northern and midland voters, the Conservatives need to find a way to win back younger people ahead of the next election.

The Yorkshire Post

Why the Tories must be the party of the ‘red wall’ and the southern heartlands to win the 2024 General Election

Onward, described as an "ideas factory for centre-right thinkers and leaders", says the Tories can only be sure of victory in the next election if they double down on the levelling up which won it a host of Yorkshire seats from Labour.

TEAM

James Blagden

Head of Politics & Polling

James Blagden

Head of Politics & Polling

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